Water AlliesTier 1
at EVO Regional(DTR)
decks
3
(4.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
21
11-8-2
overall winrate
57.1%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.6%
avg ELO +1.0 per match
expected value
52.5%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
51.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1457
· median 1461
· range 1412–1500
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
1034
Q1 1210
Q3 1457
1599
67% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.9% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.8% | +15.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.4% | 3 | 1-2-0 | 33.3% | 42.9% | 39.0% | -8.2 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 9.0% | 3 | 3-0-0 | 100.0% | 71.4% | 69.8% | +14.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 6.0% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 32.0% | -17.3 |
| Wind Razorgale | 6.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.8% | -11.5 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 53.3% | +2.4 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 4.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 3.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.5% | +2.4 |
| Fire Arcane | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 1.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.8% | -2.0 |
| Water Tera Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Umbra Guardian | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 1.5% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.3% | -1.6 |
| Wind Vanitas | 1.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.5 |
